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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest shock.

But the latest field is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners fading and recent underperformers improving together. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still