A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
